Handicapping

Football Betting Tactics

Football Point Spreads
Can 3½ points be a better line than 9½ points? You bet!

Football scoring is a "numbers game" … points are added to the score in units of 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8. With this in mind, its important to realize that CERTAIN POINT SPREADS posted by the bookmaker ARE MORE IMPORTANT than others. Because a relatively high percentage of games end with a margin of victory in increments of these numbers, it's imperative that attention be paid to the most meaningful point spreads.

Well over half of all pro football games end with one of ten possible differences in the score: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or 17 (not necessarily in that order!)

So, the "Half-Point" move off any of these numbers can represent a significant betting opportunity.

Watch for Threes!
For example, a line of +3.5 is a BARGAIN compared to that same underdog at +3 … this indicates that the favored team must now score a touchdown as opposed to a field goal in order to win the game. So, in essence, a line move to +3.5 can be considered much more significant that, say, a line move from +5 to +5.5.

And, by the same logic, a point spread that moves from +3 to +2.5 indicates a RISKY BET on the underdog. These half-point line changes from a point spread of 3 can be much more significant than larger changes.

For instance, a line change from +7.5 to +9.5 is hardly worth noticing. Because football games do not usually end with a margin of 8 or 9, the move from +7.5 to +9.5 doesn't make much difference. When a team covers, or fails to cover, 7.5 points, they almost always cover, or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.

Lucky 13 - It's the Magic Number!
To gamble on football, it's important to realize that certain scores are more likely to occur than other scores. Would you believe that only 13 different numbers represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores!

It's true! When predicting final football scores, you must take into account these REAL NUMBERS …
7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31

These numbers (plus scores in the category of "Over 40") are the only real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final outcome. Always adjust your predictions accordingly.

In other words, say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 … this score probably won't happen! Adjust your numbers to a score with a higher probability of occurring … say, 31-24 or 28-27. Now you are dealing with a point spread worthy of consideration.

College Football Betting Tactics

1. One Game Does Not A Season Make
Alway approach football betting in terms of an entire season or seasons. One or two losing weekends should never spell disaster - off weeks are an inevitable part of sports gambling. Successful bettors "grind out" their winnings over the course of the season. In other words, don't try for the big kill on one game - simply set your goals (and your money management systems) to win more games than you lose over the long haul.

2. Early Season Pointspread and Money Line Value
Look for excellent moneyline and point spread values early in the season, before the odds makers have had a chance to "catch up" with which teams are hot and which teams are not. Start your football handicapping analysis during the summer so you'll be ready to take full advantage of the first few weeks of the season.

3. Bet Quality, Not Quantity
Narrow your weekly betting choices down to no more than 5 - 7 games per week. It's a rare week when more than a few games will stand out as good wagering values. Find these games and you'll better your odds of winning more than you lose.

4. Shop For The Best Odds and Lines
With hundreds of online sportsbooks and more springing up every season, college football lines and point spreads will vary from sportsbook to sportsbook. Be certain that you are getting the best odds for your betting dollars.

5. History Does Not Always Repeat Itself
Never put too much stock in a team's performance in a single game. Much to the bookmakers' delight, most gamblers are enticed by a team who looked great the previous week. The oddsmakers will adjust the lines to reflect this effect, and in the process the team in question will have poor line value. Plus, last week's "great" team usually comes back down to earth the following week and fails to cover.

Baseball Betting Tactics

Now consider the opposite. If your average bet is a +120 underdog, your break-even percentage drops to approximately 45.5%. At +140, its down to just over 42% and the higher you go the lower the breakeven percentage. Keeping in mind that even the poorest baseball teams seldom win fewer than 37% of their games, it is apparent that looking for opportunities to bet on underdogs is essential to profitable baseball wagering.

Set a limit for betting on favorites.
While most successful baseball bettors look to play underdogs first, favorites can frequently present good value as well. Often times, one will find a top team playing on the road as a minor favorite or other situations will present themselves where small favorites are a good play. To bet baseball successfully, you should implement a strict limit on how much you’ll lay on a favorite, say -150 or lower. Once you establish your “cut off” for wagering favorites, never wager more than that, regardless of the circumstance or situation.

Don't place too much stock in starting pitchers.
Too many sports handicappers place too much emphasis on the starting pitcher. It’s understandable, of course, since the bookmakers list the starting pitcher when setting the line for each game. If you pay any attention to baseball, however, you’ll know that the quality of starting pitching has reached a state of equality, if not mediocrity. Sure, there's a small number of elite pitchers, but all others are a cut below these few. And since you’ll never get these guys anywhere near your favorite cut off point, don’t worry about them.

It's an obvious fact that baseball is a game of streaks, and nowhere is this more evident than in pitching. If a starter is demonstrating particularly good or particularly bad recent form, it might not be compensated for in the line and there may be value in playing on (or against) the starter in question. Overall, however, starting pitching receives way too much emphasis when evaluating baseball from a wagering standpoint.

Understand that baseball is a game of streaks.
This is no secret, of course, but it is something to be aware of when betting on baseball. No matter what else you find relevant about a game, you should think twice about betting against a team that has won three or more games in a row or on a team that has lost three or more games in a row. This may sound superstitious, but it's a valuable rule to follow. You'll always be better off in the long run by not going against a winning or losing streak the majority of the time.

Home field advantage just doesn't matter.
Of all major sports, there may be less advantage to playing at home in baseball than in any other. This is especially true during the long regular season. Granted there are teams that do better in certain ballparks than others, but this is more a function of the design of the ballpark and the personnel of the team than any home field advantage. Some parks are clearly “pitcher's parks” or “hitter's parks”, but it works both ways - the opposing pitchers and hitters often have the same advantage or disadvantage as the home team’s players. Furthermore, bad teams are frequently overvalued at home, which results in good value on the visitor. Over the course of season, most teams will probably do better at home than on the road but the higher prices you’ll have to pay will negate this fact. More often than not, “home field advantage” shouldn’t be a consideration in handicapping a game.

Basketball Betting Tactics

2. Value betting - find low risk high reward action.
Successful basketball gambling requires getting value on your bets ... basically this means getting better than the "true" odds on your team. For instance, if your objective prediction for a game suggests that the Lakers should be receiving 5 points but are in fact receiving 8, then this is a value betting proposition. In this case, the risk to reward is very much in your favor, making the Lakers a strong play.

3. Bet against public opinion.
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For years, the Chicago Bulls were onc such team, having captured the public's admiration during the Jordan years. High-value bets can often be found by betting against these teams because the oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the expected amount of public money ... thus, the underdog is often listed with better odds or a larger pointspread than they realistically deserve.

4. Stay abreast of injuries.
Watch the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the importance of an injured player and the quality of his back up. Remember that second-string players are often highly qualified and are especially motivated when replacing a starter, so it often pays to bet on a team missing its best player. The public normally overreacts to injuries so you may find good value in this situation. However, beware of situations where there is more than one injured stud or there is an injury to the team's captain or inspirational leader.

5. Bet on motivated teams.
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential and, at other times, may play well above what is indicated by their overall record - especially in critical games. Determine how important a game is to a team. If the team has already clinched a playoff spot, they may be more focused on the post-season than the present game. Conversely, a team facing a must-win situation to make the playoffs may be highly motivated. A team out to revenge a defeat earlier in the season may also be very motivated.

6. Bet with your head, not your heart.
Make an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based on emotions. Don't bet on a team simply because it's your favorite without considering the real odds. Be selective and remember that you will only find value betting situations in a small number of games. Betting the entire NBA schedule every week is a risky proposition at best.

7. Don't chase your losses.
When you do run into the inevitable losing streak, don't panic and make the common mistake of betting larger amounts in an attempt to recoup your losses. Instead, examine your handicapping methods and reduce your betting amounts until you start winning again. Remember - chasing your losses is the single biggest mistake a gambler can make. Once you start winning again, increase your bets slightly, but don't go overboard - unfortunately, like losing streaks, winning streaks also come to an end.

8. Don't bet just for the sake of betting.
There is no shame in passing up a bet. Remember that there are sports betting opportunities almost every day of the year. Don't bet simply for the sake of gambling - be patient and wait for good value betting opportunites.

9. Practice smart money management.
Good money management is just as important as picking winners. Increase your betting amount only when showing an overall profit and reduce your betting amount when you are losing. Try to set a maximum percentage of your betting capital that will be placed on any one bet in order to minimize your exposure ... many professional handicappers suggest that no more than five percent of your wagering capital be at risk on any one bet, no matter how strongly you feel about the game.

10. Keep accurate records.
Accurate records of your wagering activity are essential for increasing your winning percentage. For example, do you tend to bet your home team or your favorite team more than you should? What are the current trends - are more underdogs winning early in the season? By maintaining records of statistics as well as your betting history will help you to avoid destructive wagering patterns and, at the same time will enable you to spot trends that may give you an edge.

Hockey Betting Tactics

Moneyline Wagering is simply wagering on the contest based on a given price rather than a pointspread. The team wagered on simply has to win the game.

Puck Line Wagering is simply wagering on the contest based on a pointspread and a moneyline combined. The team wagered on must win by the pointspread.

Example - Moneyline Wager
The posted moneyline on a hockey game reads:

New Jersey Devils -155 at
Dallas Stars +135

A player could choose one of two moneyline wagers on this matchup:

Devils -155
If the Devils win then the player laid $155.00 to win $100.00

Stars +135
If the Stars win then the player who bet $100.00 wins $135.00

Example - Puck Line Wager
The posted line on a hockey game reads:

New Jersey Devils -1 1/2 +130 at
Dallas Stars +1 1/2 -150

A player could choose one of two Puck Line Wagers on this matchup:

Devils -1 1/2 +130
If the Devils win by 2 goals or more, then the player who bet $100.00 wins $130.00

Stars +1 1/2 -150
If the Stars win the game, or lose by only one goal, then the player laid $150.00 to win $100.00

Total (Over/Under) Wagers
On an over/under wager, the total goals of the game by both teams, extra innings included, must fall over or under the side selected.

Example - Totals Wager
The posted total on a hockey game is:

4 1/2
Under -125
Over +105

A player could choose one of two Total (over/under) wagers on this matchup:

Over 4 1/2 +105
If the total goals of both teams combined are more than 4 1/2, then the player bet $100.00 to win $105.00

Under 4 1/2 -125
If the total goals of both teams combined are less than 4 1/2, then the player who laid $125.00 wins $100.00

Golf Betting Tactics

Also remember that Tiger has yet to find a way to play in two tournaments, in different countries at the same time. This leaves plenty of tournaments where the "Tiger Factor" is a non-issue.

Watch Tee Times.
Something to consider when exploring bets on several players in a golf tournament is their tee times. Often an advantage will be had by the players who have a late tee time on day one followed by an earlier tee time on the second day. With a field of 150 players trudging over every hole, greens get plenty of spike marks on them by the end of the day, thus making putting more difficult. The later times on the second day can suffer the most.

Tee times can also affect a player's practice time. With a late start on day followed by an early start on day two, a player gets Friday afternoon off to practice if necessary or just relax before the pressures of the weekend.

The Weather.
Always keep an eye on the weather. In wind for example, some players seem to perform a lot better than others. And, always consider a player's home country or state - it may provide an indication of the type of weather they can handle. If they live and practice in a mild, sunny climate, they are less likely to beat a player from say Scotland or Ireland, when the wind starts to blow.

Look for Repeat Event Players.
Look for players who play in the same event, at the same course, year after year. They know the line for the tee shots and the roll of the greens. Never discount a player for one or two poor course performances, mixed in with one or two good ones. One year they may have had the worst of the weather. They could have just been in a poor run of form that year. If they play the same event continually, they obviously like the course.

Travel & Time Zones.
While some players are more accustomed to travelling than others, it definitely has an effect on others. While you may not want to rule out players who have travelled a long distance between tournaments in the same week, it is not advised to support them in the first day with an extremely large stake. They may be tired and lack a practice round providing vital course knowledge.

Sports Betting Advice

2.) Try to master one gambling game. Gin, poker and backgammon offer the most opportunities. Then find someone who plays less well than you do and get to work! Do not go looking for some local hot-shots just to show how brave you are.

3.) When betting on NFL games, always try to get the final difference of 3 points on your side. Roughly 20% of all NFL games finish with the favourite winning by 3. The difference between 2.5 & 3 (or 3.5 & 3) may not look much, but it is massive.

4.) If you like NFL teasers, do not bet at worse conditions than this:
i) You lay 110/100.
ii) If either game is tied, result of bet is a push.
iii) You receive a 6 point start on each game.

It is usually better to subtract points from the favourite than to add to the underdog (for example, if Washington is a 7 point favourite over Dallas, generally 'Skins -1 is more likely to win than 'Boys +13, although there is of course a decent chance that both will win.

5.) NFL odds tend to drift in the direction of the favourite as the week goes on. Some overseas based bookmakers put lines up early in the week. If you like a favourite, it often pays to bet it early, and pick up the benefit of perhaps 1 or 2 points.

6.) If you like golf, 72-hole head to head matchups can be fun. Golfers, like horses, have favourite courses. It pays to do some homework. Try to find a player who has good previous form on the course (especially if he lives nearby and knows the course well). Dudley Hart, in Fort Lauderdale in March, was a good example of this theory. Incidentally, the correct odds should be -110 each player (tie no bet). British bookmakers seem to think they have a God-given right to win if players are tied after 72 holes. Clarify this item first, and do not bet if you lose the tie.

7.) Horse racing is a murderous sport to bet on. The tracks keep something like 17% (as opposed to, for example, NFL margins of 4.5%), and you are betting against a million wise guys all over the world who do nothing but study form 25 hours a day. If you are willing to work that hard, study up on a esoteric area of the internet and make yourself some real money.

8.) An obscure event is coming up soon, one about which most bookmakers have no knowledge, and neither do the oddsmakers in Las Vegas who set these lines.

This event is called the "Olympic Games", and will be held in Australia starting in September.

Get some Athletics magazines, study up on times and concentrate on glamorous competitions like men's & women's 100 metres, long & high jumps, marathon (which often throws up a high price winner), and 1500 metres. It is most likely that odds will be offered on these. If you can get a few overseas magazines on the sport (via internet), so much the better, because you will be reading material which Las Vegas will not bother to obtain. Do not fiddle with basketball - the odds makers know everything about that sport. Do follow the qualifying statistics carefully, watch for any outsider who shows a sudden improvement over lifetime best. You might get a very attractive price.

9.) When the Winter Olympics come around, watch for foreign figure skaters against fancied American girls. The bulk of the judges are European and, surprise surprise, they seem to prefer the style of their own homebreds. A few years ago, Oxana Baiul was a dead cert against both Nancy Kerrigan and Tonya Harding, and yet was 3rd favourite in the betting! I was in Las Vegas at the time and had a very nice little touch at 5/1. Remember, all these continental judges know each other for years, and the national skating associations of small countries in East Europe are not exactly loaded with cash.

Incidentally, if there is any betting on gymnastics in the Summer Olympics, remember, it is a sport which carries a profile like figure skating.

10.) Tennis is a sport more dominated by the surface than any other. Take a big serving net-rusher like Pete Sampras, plunk him down on the slow clay of Paris, and you have a potential Round I loser. Look for big servers like Pete, or Rusedski, Krajicek and Todd Martin to do well at Wimbledon (on grass), and in the ATP Masters (indoors), the season finale. Avoid them at continental venues.

11.) Betting is for fun, so treat it as such! If you cannot follow basic concepts such as those above, and you feel you must bet every game or every race (instead of waiting for the good bets), play the lottery - you'll have a better chance.

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